Monday, April 14, 2014

COMMON SENSE vs CREATIONISM



Here is a a well-formed argument to combat the anti-science crowd.  There is still hope for Kansas!


The article:

Bukaty: ‘Cosmos’ doesn’t have to humor creationists

If you don’t have a TV, you’re weird. But undoubtedly you’re also missing one of the great new series this spring. “Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey” is a 13-part, science documentary series that airs Sunday nights on FOX. Narrated by Neil deGrasse Tyson, the show explores a handful of scientific theories that explain the workings of our universe. A reboot of the 1980 TV series presented by Carl Sagan, “Cosmos” is intensely interesting and entertaining. If you haven’t yet, watch it.
Amazingly enough, a documentary that talks entirely about science caused an uproar with the airing of its second episode, titled, “Some of the Things That Molecules Do.” The episode aired Sunday, March 16, and presented an explanation of evolution and the origin of life. A science documentary explaining a scientific theory — how shocking.
Creationist groups are furious, with some even demanding equal airtime to explain their own “theory” of the origin of life on Earth. Now look, I don’t want to get in a debate over creationism versus evolution, frankly because I don’t want to have to explain freshmen-level science to someone who writes an angry letter to the UDK. This is America after all, and you’re entirely free to believe whatever you want, even if you’re completely wrong.
The issue here is much more simple — why should the creators, financiers and producers of Cosmos devote airtime to an idea they don’t believe in? Tyson recently criticized the media for even considering the idea, reminding us that in science, there are no fair and balanced views. This is science, not CNN. Some people are right; some people are wrong. The theories adapt, humanity progresses, and hopefully soon we’ll have hoverboards. That’s how science works.
If only creationists could understand. See, it’s not up to “Cosmos” to provide a fair and balanced view. If creationists want to create their own documentary series titled, “Genesis: A Biblical Odyssey,” that’s entirely their prerogative. It could explore the handful (literally, one hand’s worth) of biblical theories that explain the workings of our universe. I probably wouldn’t watch it, but I’m sure some people in Kansas would.
So to the creationists out there complaining — it’s not Neil deGrasse Tyson’s job to adapt his program. Evolutionists have “Cosmos,” where they present their explanation of proven, testable theories of science. Creationists have the Creation Museum, located in scenic Petersburg, Ky., where they present explanations of their beliefs. Naturally, consumers will select one or the other.
- See more at: http://kansan.com/opinion/2014/04/01/bukaty-cosmos-doesnt-have-to-humor-creationists/#sthash.4NHkUVJX.dpuf




Thursday, March 6, 2014

Common Sense from Henry

A good, common sense approach, complete with historical context, to the crazy dangers lurking in the middle of Europe:

How the Ukraine crisis ends

By Henry A. Kissinger, Published: March 5

Henry A. Kissinger was secretary of state from 1973 to 1977.
Public discussion on Ukraine is all about confrontation. But do we know where we are going? In my life, I have seen four wars begun with great enthusiasm and public support, all of which we did not know how to end and from three of which we withdrew unilaterally. The test of policy is how it ends, not how it begins.
Far too often the Ukrainian issue is posed as a showdown: whether Ukraine joins the East or the West. But if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s outpost against the other — it should function as a bridge between them.
Russia must accept that to try to force Ukraine into a satellite status, and thereby move Russia’s borders again, would doom Moscow to repeat its history of self-fulfilling cycles of reciprocal pressures with Europe and the United States.
The West must understand that, to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country. Russian history began in what was called Kievan-Rus. The Russian religion spread from there. Ukraine has been part of Russia for centuries, and their histories were intertwined before then. Some of the most important battles for Russian freedom, starting with the Battle of Poltava in 1709, were fought on Ukrainian soil. The Black Sea Fleet — Russia’s means of projecting power in the Mediterranean — is based by long-term lease in Sevastopol, in Crimea. Even such famed dissidents as Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and Joseph Brodsky insisted that Ukraine was an integral part of Russian history and, indeed, of Russia.
The European Union must recognize that its bureaucratic dilatoriness and subordination of the strategic element to domestic politics in negotiating Ukraine’s relationship to Europe contributed to turning a negotiation into a crisis. Foreign policy is the art of establishing priorities.
The Ukrainians are the decisive element. They live in a country with a complex history and a polyglot composition. The Western part was incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1939 , when Stalin and Hitler divided up the spoils. Crimea, 60 percent of whose population is Russian , became part of Ukraine only in 1954 , when Nikita Khrushchev, a Ukrainian by birth, awarded it as part of the 300th-year celebration of a Russian agreement with the Cossacks. The west is largely Catholic; the east largely Russian Orthodox. The west speaks Ukrainian; the east speaks mostly Russian. Any attempt by one wing of Ukraine to dominate the other — as has been the pattern — would lead eventually to civil war or break up. To treat Ukraine as part of an East-West confrontation would scuttle for decades any prospect to bring Russia and the West — especially Russia and Europe — into a cooperative international system.
Ukraine has been independent for only 23 years; it had previously been under some kind of foreign rule since the 14th century. Not surprisingly, its leaders have not learned the art of compromise, even less of historical perspective. The politics of post-independence Ukraine clearly demonstrates that the root of the problem lies in efforts by Ukrainian politicians to impose their will on recalcitrant parts of the country, first by one faction, then by the other. That is the essence of the conflict between Viktor Yanu­kovych and his principal political rival, Yulia Tymo­shenko. They represent the two wings of Ukraine and have not been willing to share power. A wise U.S. policy toward Ukraine would seek a way for the two parts of the country to cooperate with each other. We should seek reconciliation, not the domination of a faction.
Russia and the West, and least of all the various factions in Ukraine, have not acted on this principle. Each has made the situation worse. Russia would not be able to impose a military solution without isolating itself at a time when many of its borders are already precarious. For the West, the demonization of Vladimir Putin is not a policy; it is an alibi for the absence of one.
Putin should come to realize that, whatever his grievances, a policy of military impositions would produce another Cold War. For its part, the United States needs to avoid treating Russia as an aberrant to be patiently taught rules of conduct established by Washington. Putin is a serious strategist — on the premises of Russian history. Understanding U.S. values and psychology are not his strong suits. Nor has understanding Russian history and psychology been a strong point of U.S. policymakers.
Leaders of all sides should return to examining outcomes, not compete in posturing. Here is my notion of an outcome compatible with the values and security interests of all sides:
1. Ukraine should have the right to choose freely its economic and political associations, including with Europe.
2. Ukraine should not join NATO, a position I took seven years ago, when it last came up.
3. Ukraine should be free to create any government compatible with the expressed will of its people. Wise Ukrainian leaders would then opt for a policy of reconciliation between the various parts of their country. Internationally, they should pursue a posture comparable to that of Finland. That nation leaves no doubt about its fierce independence and cooperates with the West in most fields but carefully avoids institutional hostility toward Russia.
4. It is incompatible with the rules of the existing world order for Russia to annex Crimea. But it should be possible to put Crimea’s relationship to Ukraine on a less fraught basis. To that end, Russia would recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea. Ukraine should reinforce Crimea’s autonomy in elections held in the presence of international observers. The process would include removing any ambiguities about the status of the Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol.
These are principles, not prescriptions. People familiar with the region will know that not all of them will be palatable to all parties. The test is not absolute satisfaction but balanced dissatisfaction. If some solution based on these or comparable elements is not achieved, the drift toward confrontation will accelerate. The time for that will come soon enough.
Read more on this issue: Eugene Robinson: The U.S. credibility problem in the Ukraine crisis Robert Ortung and Christopher Walker: Authoritarian regimes retool media control Stephen J. Hadley and Damon Wilson: Putin’s long game Eliot A. Cohen: Putin’s power play in Ukraine Zbigniew Brzezinski: How to respond to Putin’s aggression David J. Kramer: U.S. foreign policy coming home to roost



Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Needed: Vulcan to Human Mind Meld

I always wanted to create a series of public service ads to combat poor logic and the bad arguments that result from it. I would call them "Anti-BS PSA's"

This article in the Huff Post lays out a few examples ripe for a storyboard:

Mario Livio


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The Dangerous World of Logical Fallacies

Posted: 10/09/2012 5:40 pm

Thinkers in disciplines ranging from mathematics to economics, and from science to philosophy, attempt to construct theorems, theories, or scenarios, that have at least a fighting chance of being correct. Since in many cases one of the chief guides is logical reasoning, the ability to spot fallacies is an essential skill. In this piece I will briefly discuss a few such potential traps, and I hope to describe a few more in a future blog entry.
One fairly common fallacy is known as the "post-hoc" (Latin for "after this") fallacy. This is the notion that because one event happened to follow another, cause and effect are implied. This type of faulty reasoning has helped to make many "healers" and "psychics" very rich. The placebo effect notwithstanding, the fact that someone's health improved following a visit to such a healer does not imply any causal relation. Similarly, if you fell and broke your leg after a black cat had crossed your path, don't blame the cat (see also Figure 1). This is not to say, of course, that one should not investigate cases in which a certain sequence of events repeats itself multiple times.
2012-10-02-sn1987a_hst_small.jpg
Figure 1. The light from supernova 1987A reached Earth on February 23, 1987. The fact that this was one day after the death of the famous artist Andy Warhol clearly does not mean that the two events are related in any way. (Credit: ESA/STScI, HST, NASA.)

Another known fallacy is that of the "false dilemma." For instance, the question: "Is mathematics an invention or a discovery?" leaves you with the impression that these are the only two options, and that the two are mutually exclusive. In fact, I believe that mathematics is an intricate combination of intertwined inventions and discoveries. Similarly, a statement such as: "The government should invest either in scientific research or in education" is false, since it could actually do both (clearly within budgetary constraints). The world isn't just black or white. In general, one should always carefully examine phrases that start with "the choice is clear," since those can potentially hide false dilemmas.
Studies show that one of the most frequently occurring fallacies involves logic flowing in the wrong direction. The argument goes like this: If P is true, then Q necessarily follows. Q is true, therefore P is true. For instance, if Earth is the only planet on which intelligent life exists, then clearly we will not find any signs of intelligent life on other planets. However, just because we have not found extraterrestrial intelligent life yet, we should not conclude that such ET life does not exist (Figure 2). To make things a bit closer to home, consider the following situation that probably many young (and not so young) people have experienced. A man thinks: "If she is not interested in seeing me again, she may say that she has another commitment tonight." This may be true, but if the woman in question has sent him a text message saying that she has another commitment, he should not automatically conclude that she is not interested.
2012-10-02-mirror37_sm.jpg
Figure 2. The fact that we have not discovered extraterrestrial life yet does not mean we should stop looking. The James Webb Space Telescope (being built now) will help discover liquid water on the surface of planets. (Credit: NASA.)

Some fallacies are very seductive, and avoiding them requires a close examination of the logic involved. A famous one concerns the warning against stepping onto a "slippery slope." No one likes to embark on something that inevitably leads to disaster, but one should always investigate how likely such a slide truly is. The fact that something could happen doesn't necessarily mean that it will, or even that it is likely to happen -- not every action opens the floodgates. In particular, we should never allow fear of fallacious slippery slopes to stifle our natural curiosity.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Today we are confronted with news from around the world that American and European embassies in the Middle East are being attacked by mobs of religious people who feel their prophet had been insulted by a movie made by religious people of a different stripe.  The sheer irrationality on display on all sides of this is the most frightening thing about all of it.

Sam Harris has the best blog post that pretty much boils it all down:



On the Freedom to Offend an Imaginary God

The latest wave of Muslim hysteria and violence has now spread to over twenty countries. The walls of our embassies and consulates have been breached, their precincts abandoned to triumphant mobs, and many people have been murdered—all in response to an unwatchable Internet video titled “Innocence of Muslims.” Whether over a film, a cartoon, a novel, a beauty pageant, or an inauspiciously named teddy bear, the coming eruption of pious rage is now as predictable as the dawn. This is already an old and boring story about old, boring, and deadly ideas. And I fear it will be with us for the rest of our lives.
Our panic and moral confusion were at first sublimated in attacks upon the hapless Governor Romney. I am no fan of Romney’s, and I would find the prospect of his presidency risible if it were not so depressing, but he did accurately detect the first bleats of fear in the Obama administration’s reaction to this crisis. Romney got the timing of events wrong—confusing, as many did, a statement made by the U.S. Embassy in Cairo for an official government response to the murder of Americans in Libya. But the truth is that the White House struck the same note of apology, disavowing the offending speech while claiming to protect free speech in principle. It may seem a small detail, given the heat of the moment—but so is a quivering lip.
Our government followed the path of appeasement further by attempting to silence the irrepressible crackpot Pastor Terry Jones, who had left off burning copies of the Qur’an just long enough to promote the film. The administration also requested that Google remove “Innocence of Muslims” from its servers. These maneuvers attest to one of two psychological and diplomatic realities: Either our government is unwilling to address the problem at hand, or the problem is so vast and terrifying that we have decided to placate the barbarians at the gate.
The contagion of moral cowardice followed its usual course, wherein liberal journalists and pundits began to reconsider our most basic freedoms in light of the sadomasochistic fury known as “religious sensitivity” among Muslims. Contributors to The New York Times and NPR spoke of the need to find a balance between free speech and freedom of religion—as though the latter could possibly be infringed by a YouTube video. As predictable as Muslim bullying has become, the moral confusion of secular liberals appears to be part of the same clockwork.
Consider what is actually happening: Some percentage of the world’s Muslims—Five percent? Fifteen? Fifty? It’s not yet clear—is demanding that all non-Muslims conform to the strictures of Islamic law. And where they do not immediately resort to violence in their protests, they threaten it. Carrying a sign that reads “Behead Those Who Insult the Prophet” may still count as an example of peaceful protest, but it is also an assurance that infidel blood would be shed if the imbecile holding the placard only had more power. This grotesque promise is, of course, fulfilled in nearly every Muslim society. To make a film like “Innocence of Muslims” anywhere in the Middle East would be as sure a method of suicide as the laws of physics allow.
What exactly was in the film? Who made it? What were their motives? Was Muhammad really depicted? Was that a Qur’an burning, or some other book? Questions of this kind are obscene. Here is where the line must be drawn and defended without apology: We are free to burn the Qur’an or any other book, and to criticize Muhammad or any other human being. Let no one forget it.
At moments like this, we inevitably hear—from people who don’t know what it’s like to believe in paradise—that religion is just a way of channeling popular unrest. The true source of the problem can be found in the history of western aggression in the region. It is our policies, rather than our freedoms, that they hate. I believe that the future of liberalism—and much else—depends on our overcoming this ruinous self-deception.  Religion only works as a pretext for political violence because many millions of people actually believe what they say they believe: that imaginary crimes like blasphemy and apostasy are killing offenses.
Most secular liberals think that all religions are the same, and they consider any suggestion to the contrary a sign of bigotry. Somehow, this article of faith survives daily disconfirmation. Our language is largely to blame for this. As I have pointed out on many occasions, “religion” is a term like “sports”: Some sports are peaceful but spectacularly dangerous (“free solo” rock climbing, street luge); some are safer but synonymous with violence (boxing, mixed martial arts); and some entail no more risk of serious injury than standing in the shower (bowling, badminton). To speak of “sports” as a generic activity makes it impossible to discuss what athletes actually do, or the physical attributes required to do it. What do all sports have in common, apart from breathing? Not much. The term “religion” is scarcely more useful.
Consider Mormonism: Many of my fellow liberals would consider it morally indecent to count Romney’s faith against him. In their view, Mormonism must be just like every other religion. The truth, however, is that the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has more than its fair share of quirks. For instance, its doctrine was explicitly racist until 1978, at which point God apparently changed his mind about black people (a few years after Archie Bunker did) and recommended that they be granted the full range of sacraments and religious responsibilities. By this time, Romney had been an adult and an exceptionally energetic member of his church for more than a decade.
Unlike the founders of most religions, about whom very little is known, Mormonism is the product of the plagiarisms and confabulations of an obvious con man, Joseph Smith, whose adventures among the credulous were consummated (in every sense) in the full, unsentimental glare of history. Given how much we know about Smith, it is harder to be a Mormon than it is to be a Christian. A firmer embrace of the preposterous is required—and the fact that Romney can manage it says something about him, just as it would if he were a Scientologist proposing to park his E-meter in the Oval Office. The spectrum between rational belief and self-serving delusion has some obvious increments: It is one thing to believe that Jesus existed and was probably a remarkable human being. It is another to accept, as most Christians do, that he was physically resurrected and will return to earth to judge the living and the dead. It is yet another leap of faith too far to imagine, as all good Mormons must, that he will work his cosmic magic from the hallowed ground of Jackson County, Missouri.
That final, provincial detail matters. It makes Mormonism objectively less plausible than run-of-the-mill Christianity—as does the related claim that Jesus visited the “Nephites” in America at some point after his resurrection. The moment one adds seer stones, sacred underpants, the planet Kolob, and a secret handshake required to win admittance into the highest heaven, Mormonism stands revealed for what it is: the religious equivalent of rhythmic gymnastics.
The point, however, is that I can say all these things about Mormonism, and disparage Joseph Smith to my heart’s content, without fearing that I will be murdered for it. Secular liberals ignore this distinction at every opportunity and to everyone’s peril. Take a moment to reflect upon the existence of the musical The Book of Mormon. Now imagine the security precautions that would be required to stage a similar production about Islam. The project is unimaginable—not only in Beirut, Baghdad, or Jerusalem, but in New York City.
The freedom to think out loud on certain topics, without fear of being hounded into hiding or killed, has already been lost. And the only forces on earth that can recover it are strong, secular governments that will face down charges of blasphemy with scorn. No apologies necessary. Muslims must learn that if they make belligerent and fanatical claims upon the tolerance of free societies, they will meet the limits of that tolerance. And Governor Romney, though he is wrong about almost everything under the sun (including, very likely, the sun), is surely right to believe that it is time our government delivered this message without blinking.



Friday, September 10, 2010

Reject Religious Fanatics: Build the Mosque

Reaction to September 11 and the idea of a Mosque near Ground Zero:

The worst possible reaction to an attack on our freedom and way of life is to reduce our freedoms and change our way of life. It’s like surrender.

Common Sense says:

1)    America’s founding is anchored on religious freedom. To be consistent with our principles, we MUST support religious freedom, even when it takes the form of a religion we are not part of.
2)    Resisting the Ground Zero mosque accepts the premise of our enemy's argument – which says we are at war with a religion (Islam). No, we are not. We are at war with murderers and we should not accept the idea of holy war. It didn’t turn out well a 1000 years ago (Crusades) and we should have no intention of repeating history

The United States created a secular constitution to avoid the inevitable conflicts that arise out of “faith based” governance. There are just too many different ways of looking at the universe to ever have all of us on the same page. Best to let people decide for themselves and keep Uncle Sam out of it.  It’s working well. 

BOTOM LINE:  By allowing the mosque to continue, we keep the power away from the religious fanatics of all stripes and keep faith with our founding principles.

Earn The Truth

The credo:
In case of Trauma:  Remain calm. Take appropriate action

This is the first entry in my “Center for Common Sense” blog. The idea here is to create very short, common sense insights into the issues of the day. I’m interested in finding solution-oriented ideas that move us forward. Please log in and put up any, positively motivated idea you have. Hate speech and regurgitated talking points will be taken off.  Hopefully, this will be a place to quickly introduce yourself to alternate ways of looking at a problem or issue   -- perhaps a new view that makes perfect sense. Common Sense.